Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4627 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4627 CMH 09:06 → DCA 10:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 1228 CMH 12:23 → DCA 13:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4627 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:06	DCA 10:43	8%	3%	1.0%	80%
AA 3861 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:12	DCA 07:38	11%	3%	0.8%	94%
YX 4777 Republic	CMH 16:13	DCA 17:56	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:25	DCA 14:01	20%	4%	0.8%	70%
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 19:03	DCA 20:40	21%	7%	0.9%	73%
WN 1228 Southwest	CMH 12:23	DCA 13:52	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON