Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1247 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1247 CMH 06:31 → DEN 07:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1389 CMH 17:12 → DEN 18:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1247 Southwest	CMH 06:31	DEN 07:43	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1250 Southwest	CMH 12:16	DEN 13:27	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 728 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	DEN 10:14	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 513 Southwest	CMH 18:51	DEN 19:58	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1389 United Flight history →	CMH 17:12	DEN 18:45	18%	5%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON