Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3458 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 3458 CMH 05:57 → EWR 07:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2065 CMH 16:45 → EWR 18:35 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3458 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:57	EWR 07:53	3%	1%	0.7%	90%
UA 3457 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:08	EWR 10:12	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
YX 3528 Republic	CMH 09:14	EWR 11:09	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3480 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:35	EWR 13:28	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 3596 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:15	EWR 15:08	15%	4%	0.7%	77%
G7 4383 GoJet	CMH 19:54	EWR 21:56	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 2065 United	CMH 16:45	EWR 18:35	27%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON