tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1537 at 15:16, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1537 Southwest CMH 15:16 FLL 18:01 22% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 23m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39AA 3206 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 10:50 → FLL 12:57AA 2585 6h 48m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 6h 15m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 51m Chicago ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13UA 1421 5h 43m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:30 → IAH 08:16UA 2205 2h 10m Houston IAH 10:26 → FLL 14:20UA 2670 7h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:11 → ATL 09:45DL 3165 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 6h 16m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 08m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 7h 19m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 14m New York JFK 11:14 → FLL 14:24DL 305 7h 21m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 11:03 → ORD 11:39UA 622 50m Chicago ORD 12:29 → FLL 16:39UA 1294 5h 36m 73% 57%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 50m Dulles IAD 08:13 → FLL 11:09UA 1825 5h 09m 63% 56%
UnitedDetails → CMH 16:26 → ORD 16:58UA 3465 · flown by Republic 47m Chicago ORD 17:45 → FLL 21:51UA 463 5h 25m 64% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON