Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3430 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Safest bet that day UA 3430 CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 1538 CMH 15:14 → IAD 16:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3430 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:00	IAD 07:30	3%	2%	0.7%	95%
UA 1538 United	CMH 15:14	IAD 16:41	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 4593 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 19:40	IAD 21:09	11%	7%	9.7%	89%
UA 4056 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 10:30	IAD 11:54	26%	7%	0.0%	74%
UA 4428 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 06:00	IAD 07:23	29%	12%	2.0%	71%
UA 4387 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 14:53	IAD 16:22	31%	17%	5.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON