Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2205 CMH 06:30 → IAH 08:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OO 4700 CMH 17:04 → IAH 18:56 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2205 United Flight history →	CMH 06:30	IAH 08:16	11%	2%	0.7%	85%
OO 4700 SkyWest	CMH 17:04	IAH 18:56	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4065 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 11:43	IAH 13:40	21%	6%	0.7%	79%
UA 4074 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 17:01	IAH 19:04	24%	3%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON