Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4808 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4808 CMH 09:10 → JFK 11:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5650 CMH 18:15 → JFK 20:29 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4808 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:10	JFK 11:11	7%	3%	1.2%	87%
DL 5656 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 07:03	JFK 09:00	7%	3%	1.8%	90%
DL 5649 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:30	JFK 14:35	15%	5%	1.1%	80%
YX 4399 Republic	CMH 14:29	JFK 16:25	17%	5%	1.1%	no record
DL 5650 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 18:15	JFK 20:29	20%	6%	1.3%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON