tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 10:53, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 354 United Flight history → CMH 07:15 LAX 09:06 15% 3% 0.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 9h 17m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:30UA 3430 · flown by Republic 2h 09m Dulles IAD 09:39 → LAX 12:22UA 657 9h 22m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 14:52DL 2974 6h 59m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 28m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 9h 20m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 56m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:30 → IAH 08:16UA 2205 1h 37m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 00m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 52m Dulles IAD 08:15 → LAX 10:47UA 1734 7h 47m 66% 56%
UnitedDetails → CMH 13:15 → EWR 15:08UA 3596 · flown by Republic 52m Newark EWR 16:00 → LAX 18:42UA 2238 8h 27m 69% 48%
AlaskaDetails → CMH 07:00 → SEA 09:07AS 283 48m Seattle SEA 09:55 → LAX 12:27AS 1306 8h 27m 58% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON