Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5700 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 5700 CMH 06:00 → LGA 07:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4684 CMH 15:37 → LGA 17:37 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5700 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:00	LGA 07:49	6%	2%	3.0%	94%
YX 4625 Republic	CMH 06:59	LGA 09:00	11%	3%	2.2%	no record
AA 4604 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:27	LGA 11:26	11%	4%	2.1%	87%
DL 5691 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:00	LGA 09:49	12%	3%	2.8%	86%
YX 5862 Republic	CMH 10:57	LGA 12:58	13%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 4381 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:25	LGA 15:25	19%	7%	1.6%	77%
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 14:20	LGA 16:20	24%	7%	1.5%	78%
AA 4791 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:33	LGA 19:33	25%	10%	1.9%	67%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:30	LGA 19:28	26%	10%	2.1%	88%worse than usual
AA 4684 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 15:37	LGA 17:37	26%	9%	1.2%	43%
DL 4649 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CMH 14:25	LGA 16:14	38%	21%	12.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON