Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3667 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3667 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 07:00	MIA 09:44	11%	4%	0.7%	95%
AA 4085 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 14:20	MIA 17:08	30%	7%	0.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:30UA 3430 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 35m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic	1h 32m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 48m	98%	85%
American Details →	CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39AA 3206	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	7h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	98%	83%
American Details →	CMH 06:12 → DCA 07:38AA 3861 · flown by Envoy	2h 18m Washington	DCA 09:56 → MIA 12:46AA 401	6h 34m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CMH 14:00 → MSP 15:07DL 2550	3h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	9h 35m	99%	82%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	51m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → MIA 11:24UA 1358	5h 54m	95%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CMH 13:07 → ORD 13:33AA 6347 · flown by SkyWest	58m Chicago	ORD 14:31 → MIA 18:36AA 1431	5h 29m	73%	46%
American Details →	CMH 15:37 → LGA 17:37AA 4684 · flown by Republic	49m New York	LGA 18:26 → MIA 21:24AA 3088	5h 47m	69%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON