Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3524 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 3524 CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1182 CMH 18:04 → ORD 18:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3524 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:09	3%	2%	1.6%	94%
YX 4563 Republic	CMH 05:29	ORD 06:00	4%	3%	1.6%	no record
UA 622 United Flight history →	CMH 11:03	ORD 11:39	12%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:49	ORD 07:27	15%	4%	1.6%	78%
UA 2653 United	CMH 08:45	ORD 09:15	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 466 United Flight history →	CMH 07:13	ORD 07:41	17%	4%	1.2%	81%
AA 3572 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 08:29	ORD 09:10	17%	5%	1.1%	76%
YX 3716 Republic	CMH 12:36	ORD 13:07	17%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 10:24	ORD 10:46	19%	5%	1.1%	89%
MQ 3917 Envoy	CMH 21:01	ORD 21:31	23%	6%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3815 Envoy	CMH 15:16	ORD 15:38	23%	8%	1.4%	no record
UA 3465 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 16:26	ORD 16:58	24%	7%	1.8%	75%
AA 6347 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 13:07	ORD 13:33	26%	11%	2.9%	47%
OO 5370 SkyWest	CMH 19:54	ORD 20:21	26%	11%	2.4%	no record
UA 1293 United	CMH 14:13	ORD 14:41	26%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 1182 United Flight history →	CMH 18:04	ORD 18:44	29%	10%	1.0%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON