Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2867 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 2867 CMH 05:58 → PHL 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3241 CMH 16:52 → PHL 18:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2867 American Flight history →	CMH 05:58	PHL 07:47	6%	3%	1.1%	94%
AA 4711 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:05	PHL 09:45	7%	2%	1.3%	88%
AA 5640 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 10:40	PHL 12:15	14%	6%	1.7%	85%
AA 2253 American	CMH 13:00	PHL 14:48	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2592 American	CMH 18:45	PHL 20:33	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 3241 American Flight history →	CMH 16:52	PHL 18:40	21%	7%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON