Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4239 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4239 CMH 06:01 → PHX 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1565 CMH 18:26 → PHX 19:41 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4239 Southwest	CMH 06:01	PHX 07:05	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1958 American Flight history →	CMH 07:58	PHX 09:09	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
WN 1268 Southwest	CMH 17:36	PHX 18:39	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1565 American	CMH 18:26	PHX 19:41	17%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON