tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1488 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1488 Southwest CMH 05:11 RSW 07:48 5% 1% 0.9% no record
WN 3672 Southwest CMH 15:16 RSW 17:49 17% 7% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 11m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 56m Chicago ORD 07:05 → RSW 11:14UA 1740 5h 44m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:11 → ATL 09:45DL 3165 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 24m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 44m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:30 → IAH 08:16UA 2205 1h 14m Houston IAH 09:30 → RSW 13:14UA 494 6h 44m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → CMH 07:13 → ORD 07:41UA 466 3h 10m Chicago ORD 10:51 → RSW 14:48UA 2137 7h 35m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → CMH 08:05 → PHL 09:45AA 4711 · flown by Republic 1h 48m Philadelphia PHL 11:33 → RSW 14:44AA 507 6h 39m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → CMH 08:03 → CLT 09:40AA 3217 2h 26m Charlotte CLT 12:06 → RSW 14:14AA 2018 6h 11m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 52m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 4h 53m 66% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON