Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1271 Southwest	CMH 10:01	SAN 11:58	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843	8h 39m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 12m Detroit	DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:10DL 761	8h 55m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 03m	99%	82%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	52m Chicago	ORD 07:01 → SAN 09:29UA 2428	6h 59m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:31 → SLC 09:21DL 2142	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 37m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	CMH 14:00 → MSP 15:07DL 2550	3h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36DL 2145	9h 36m	99%	80%
United Details →	CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:30UA 3430 · flown by Republic	56m Dulles	IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49UA 1930	7h 49m	96%	80%
American Details →	CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39AA 3206	3h 36m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466	9h 56m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49UA 1930	7h 49m	74%	61%
United Details →	CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa	46m Dulles	IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03UA 2163	7h 33m	61%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON