Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1597 United Flight history →	CMH 07:00	SFO 09:06	18%	6%	0.6%	75%
UA 1354 United	CMH 15:35	SFO 17:51	22%	13%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:30UA 3430 · flown by Republic	2h 15m Dulles	IAD 09:45 → SFO 12:29UA 1773	9h 29m	100%	85%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116	7h 49m	98%	83%
United Details →	CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa	2h 57m Dulles	IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862	10h 08m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:11 → ATL 09:45DL 3165	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	9h 39m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	50m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 20m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	9h 19m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic	2h 15m New York	JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363	10h 30m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	CMH 14:00 → MSP 15:07DL 2550	3h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	9h 57m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa	46m Dulles	IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434	7h 57m	61%	50%
United Details →	CMH 13:15 → EWR 15:08UA 3596 · flown by Republic	52m Newark	EWR 16:00 → SFO 19:07UA 2004	8h 52m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON