Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4884 Southwest	CMH 07:11	STL 07:46	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4925 Southwest	CMH 20:31	STL 21:06	12%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 43m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371	5h 50m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868	3h 51m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224	6h 57m	98%	87%
American Details →	CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39AA 3206	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 08:47 → STL 09:50AA 2497	4h 41m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543	7h 06m	100%	85%
United Details →	CMH 07:13 → ORD 07:41UA 466	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35UA 1044	6h 22m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON