tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1377 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1377 Southwest CMH 05:01 TPA 07:25 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1491 Southwest CMH 14:56 TPA 17:21 13% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:30UA 3430 · flown by Republic 1h 30m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 32m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 07m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 22m Chicago ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24UA 2326 5h 54m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 6h 39m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 24m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39AA 3206 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → TPA 12:20AA 436 6h 11m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 10m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 5h 35m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa 55m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 4h 45m 74% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON