Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1664 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1664 COS 06:46 → DEN 07:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1610 COS 13:29 → DEN 14:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1664 Southwest	COS 06:46	DEN 07:37	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5291 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 06:00	DEN 07:05	4%	3%	0.7%	89%
OO 4656 SkyWest	COS 05:31	DEN 06:23	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2773 Southwest	COS 10:11	DEN 11:02	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 4696 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 07:05	DEN 08:10	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 5400 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 10:23	DEN 11:38	11%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 5634 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 09:20	DEN 10:33	14%	6%	0.7%	85%
OO 6098 SkyWest	COS 09:35	DEN 10:41	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4675 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 11:31	DEN 12:45	15%	7%	0.7%	82%
UA 5391 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 18:32	DEN 19:45	17%	7%	0.8%	72%
OO 4691 SkyWest	COS 08:36	DEN 09:28	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5371 SkyWest	COS 07:44	DEN 08:36	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1280 Southwest	COS 17:01	DEN 17:52	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4690 SkyWest	COS 14:59	DEN 15:51	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 4719 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 17:07	DEN 18:20	23%	8%	0.7%	68%
UA 1610 United	COS 13:29	DEN 14:22	25%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON