Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 6221 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day OO 6221 COS 05:54 → DFW 09:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1170 COS 15:49 → DFW 18:49 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6221 SkyWest	COS 05:54	DFW 09:01	8%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 782 American Flight history →	COS 08:01	DFW 10:56	13%	5%	1.0%	92%
AA 1552 American Flight history →	COS 10:26	DFW 13:22	22%	7%	0.9%	71%
OO 6197 SkyWest	COS 13:22	DFW 16:19	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 6234 SkyWest	COS 17:17	DFW 20:14	23%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 1170 American Flight history →	COS 15:49	DFW 18:49	26%	10%	1.1%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON