tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1285 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1285 Southwest COS 05:32 LAS 06:29 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 4745 Southwest COS 12:36 LAS 13:32 18% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h behind Colorado Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → COS 06:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5291 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 4h 07m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:05 → DEN 08:10UA 4696 · flown by SkyWest 1h 41m Denver DEN 09:51 → LAS 11:02UA 1767 4h 57m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 13:28 → LAS 14:28UA 493 6h 08m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → COS 11:31 → DEN 12:45UA 4675 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Denver DEN 16:13 → LAS 17:28UA 2424 6h 57m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:30 → IAH 11:03UA 4029 · flown by Mesa 52m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 6h 43m 85% 74%
UnitedDetails → COS 12:06 → IAH 15:35UA 4030 · flown by Mesa 1h 03m Houston IAH 16:38 → LAS 18:08UA 2190 7h 02m 82% 68%
AmericanDetails → COS 08:01 → DFW 10:56AA 782 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:18 → LAS 13:06AA 777 6h 05m 93% 67%
AmericanDetails → COS 10:26 → DFW 13:22AA 1552 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:27 → LAS 16:26AA 1573 7h 00m 92% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON