tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1290 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1290 Southwest COS 07:11 PHX 08:05 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3896 Southwest COS 14:31 PHX 15:24 16% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Colorado Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → COS 06:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5291 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Denver DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782 5h 55m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:05 → DEN 08:10UA 4696 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 6h 20m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → COS 10:23 → DEN 11:38UA 5400 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 7h 12m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Denver DEN 13:24 → PHX 14:26UA 631 6h 06m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → COS 08:01 → DFW 10:56AA 782 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:12AA 336 6h 11m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → COS 10:26 → DFW 13:22AA 1552 3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:25 → PHX 17:14AA 1232 7h 48m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → COS 12:06 → IAH 15:35UA 4030 · flown by Mesa 1h 26m Houston IAH 17:01 → PHX 18:08UA 1478 7h 02m 86% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON