tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 551 at 10:51, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 551 Southwest COS 10:51 SAN 12:11 24% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Colorado Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → COS 07:30 → IAH 11:03UA 4029 · flown by Mesa 3h 17m Houston IAH 14:20 → SAN 15:50UA 1114 9h 20m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → COS 06:00 → ATL 10:54DL 1074 56m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 08m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 6h 35m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:05 → DEN 08:10UA 4696 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 36m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → COS 11:31 → DEN 12:45UA 4675 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 6h 49m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → COS 13:40 → ATL 18:44DL 2427 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16DL 819 8h 36m 87% 67%
AmericanDetails → COS 08:01 → DFW 10:56AA 782 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:41 → SAN 16:02AA 2361 9h 01m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → COS 10:26 → DFW 13:22AA 1552 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:44 → SAN 18:05AA 2266 8h 39m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON