Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 117 SkyWest	COS 08:11	SLC 09:56	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4449 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 18:16	SLC 20:09	8%	4%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	COS 06:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5291 · flown by SkyWest	55m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SLC 09:37UA 497	3h 37m	95%	88%
United Details →	COS 07:05 → DEN 08:10UA 4696 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	6h 08m	100%	85%
United Details →	COS 09:20 → DEN 10:33UA 5634 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Denver	DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840	5h 53m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON