Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 3635 at 08:26, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3635 Envoy	COU 08:26	CLT 11:37	14%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01AA 3655 · flown by Envoy	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → CLT 14:46AA 3021	7h 26m	97%	79%
American Details →	COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50AA 3525 · flown by Envoy	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 41m	98%	79%
American Details →	COU 12:09 → DFW 13:52AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013	6h 33m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON