Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5857 at 09:14, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5857 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COU 09:14	DEN 10:35	13%	10%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01AA 3655 · flown by Envoy	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:27AA 2363	6h 07m	94%	76%
United Details →	COU 10:49 → ORD 12:30UA 4605 · flown by GoJet	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	8h 24m	100%	75%
American Details →	COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50AA 3525 · flown by Envoy	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	5h 51m	95%	73%
American Details →	COU 12:09 → DFW 13:52AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → DEN 17:19AA 1322	6h 10m	97%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON