Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2441 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–9%.

Safest bet that day DL 2441 CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1846 CVG 12:18 → ATL 13:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2441 Delta Flight history →	CVG 05:34	ATL 07:02	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 963 Delta Flight history →	CVG 10:05	ATL 11:35	4%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 3076 Delta Flight history →	CVG 08:15	ATL 09:45	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 720 Delta	CVG 15:01	ATL 16:47	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2302 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:09	ATL 08:41	6%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 3119 Delta Flight history →	CVG 19:59	ATL 21:46	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 3149 Delta Flight history →	CVG 13:29	ATL 15:04	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1008 Delta Flight history →	CVG 17:48	ATL 19:30	8%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 3169 Delta Flight history →	CVG 16:16	ATL 17:51	9%	3%	0.6%	69%
F9 1846 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 12:18	ATL 13:58	16%	5%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON