tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1303 at 10:36, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1303 Southwest CVG 10:36 AUS 12:19 6% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record CVG 08:10 AUS 09:50 10% 7% 0.9% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976 4h 53m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 16m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 41m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 8h 38m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 6h 39m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 6h 45m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 1h 27m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 5h 59m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:26 → MCO 10:30DL 511 2h 05m Orlando MCO 12:35 → AUS 14:30DL 2259 7h 04m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 15:59 → MIA 18:32AA 3554 · flown by Envoy 1h 08m Miami MIA 19:40 → AUS 21:40AA 2629 6h 41m 75% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON