tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4890 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4890 Southwest CVG 07:06 BNA 07:23 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1297 Southwest CVG 19:21 BNA 19:39 15% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 07m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 21m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 6h 28m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 4h 58m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 03m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 29m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 3h 33m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 7h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:03 → DTW 12:16DL 5209 · flown by Endeavor 3h 45m Detroit DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316 6h 37m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 13:29 → ATL 15:04DL 3149 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 23m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 11:50 → DFW 13:21AA 2610 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:07 → BNA 16:10AA 1181 5h 20m 73% 54%
DeltaDetails → CVG 12:35 → DCA 14:07DL 5221 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m Washington DCA 15:10 → BNA 16:15DL 5777 · flown by Republic 4h 40m 65% 53%
UnitedDetails → CVG 12:00 → EWR 14:04UA 4192 · flown by GoJet 49m Newark EWR 14:53 → BNA 16:10UA 695 5h 10m 71% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON