Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5790 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 5790 CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 5598 CVG 14:47 → BOS 17:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5790 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 06:00	BOS 08:22	8%	3%	1.4%	91%
AA 3807 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 07:10	BOS 09:25	10%	5%	1.1%	96%
DL 5620 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 20:20	BOS 22:47	16%	8%	1.0%	84%
DL 5601 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 11:52	BOS 14:09	18%	8%	0.9%	85%
AA 4761 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 16:14	BOS 18:49	22%	10%	0.8%	77%
DL 5789 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 17:25	BOS 19:48	25%	10%	0.9%	67%
DL 5598 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 14:47	BOS 17:10	25%	12%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON