tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1300 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1300 Southwest CVG 05:46 BWI 07:32 2% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 1301 Southwest CVG 17:31 BWI 19:17 13% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801 5h 13m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 5h 52m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 2h 39m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 28m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 45m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 7h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 5h 48m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic 2h 48m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 6h 53m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:03 → DTW 12:16DL 5209 · flown by Endeavor 2h 49m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 5h 38m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 17m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 57m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CVG 17:25 → BOS 19:48DL 5789 · flown by Republic 47m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 5h 04m 69% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON