Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2349 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2349 CVG 05:51 → CLT 07:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5111 CVG 18:20 → CLT 19:47 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2349 American	CVG 05:51	CLT 07:22	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 429 American Flight history →	CVG 08:11	CLT 09:42	15%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 1533 American	CVG 13:11	CLT 14:43	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 430 American Flight history →	CVG 11:24	CLT 13:03	20%	5%	0.8%	60%
OH 5111 PSA	CVG 18:20	CLT 19:47	20%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON