Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1666 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1666 CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3725 CVG 17:10 → DEN 18:18 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1666 United Flight history →	CVG 08:00	DEN 09:02	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 518 Southwest	CVG 14:26	DEN 15:26	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 479 United Flight history →	CVG 15:29	DEN 16:30	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
F9 3725 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 17:10	DEN 18:18	24%	6%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON