tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4018 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record CVG 14:55 IAD 16:34 13% 4% 1.9% 87%
UA 4422 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record CVG 19:45 IAD 21:25 14% 8% 3.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 5h 57m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 6h 03m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 5h 46m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 04m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 04m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 18m Chicago ORD 10:52 → IAD 13:49UA 1486 6h 49m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 41m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02UA 1666 1h 18m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 95% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON