Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4657 CVG 06:00 → JFK 08:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest YX 4388 CVG 11:43 → JFK 13:58 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4657 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 06:00	JFK 08:11	5%	3%	1.6%	91%
YX 4388 Republic	CVG 11:43	JFK 13:58	10%	6%	1.3%	no record
DL 5044 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 06:45	JFK 08:50	6%	2%	3.3%	94%
DL 5096 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 11:35	JFK 13:40	16%	8%	3.2%	84%
DL 5507 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 18:00	JFK 20:25	27%	14%	5.4%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON