tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2915 Delta Flight history → CVG 07:16 LAS 08:16 9% 3% 0.6% 83%
G4 376 Allegiant CVG 08:01 LAS 09:17 18% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 6h 57m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 22m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11UA 2442 3h 44m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 38m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 53m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02UA 1666 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542 8h 10m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 9h 03m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 23m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 6h 53m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CVG 18:29 → DTW 19:50DL 5071 · flown by Endeavor 53m Detroit DTW 20:43 → LAS 21:58DL 916 6h 29m 70% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON