Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4948 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 06:00	LGA 07:59	7%	3%	8.2%	93%
DL 5075 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 12:35	LGA 14:40	14%	7%	10.4%	86%
DL 5149 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 08:00	LGA 10:00	18%	8%	4.9%	82%
DL 5014 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 10:34	LGA 12:29	19%	2%	2.1%	81%
DL 4682 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 15:30	LGA 17:30	27%	11%	5.5%	73%
DL 4949 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 17:35	LGA 19:41	31%	13%	16.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON