Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 511 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 511 CVG 08:26 → MCO 10:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 4393 CVG 15:36 → MCO 17:46 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 511 Delta Flight history →	CVG 08:26	MCO 10:30	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
F9 3624 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 07:15	MCO 09:32	10%	4%	0.9%	91%
DL 2824 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:58	MCO 18:23	15%	9%	2.3%	75%
WN 4393 Southwest	CVG 15:36	MCO 17:46	18%	8%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON