Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1304 at 08:31, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1304 Southwest	CVG 08:31	MDW 08:56	5%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	7h 22m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 10m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor	2h 54m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	5h 32m	97%	78%
Frontier Details →	CVG 12:18 → ATL 13:58F9 1846	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:06 → MDW 18:24F9 2779	7h 06m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	3h 55m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	CVG 14:15 → DTW 15:33DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor	2h 34m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	5h 14m	94%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 16:00 → DTW 17:17DL 5456 · flown by Endeavor	50m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	3h 29m	61%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON