Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3638 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3638 CVG 06:30 → MIA 09:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3554 CVG 15:59 → MIA 18:32 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3638 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:30	MIA 09:08	12%	3%	0.9%	88%
MQ 3847 Envoy	CVG 08:49	MIA 11:38	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 3554 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 15:59	MIA 18:32	35%	11%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON