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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, G4 379 at 13:44, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G4 379 Allegiant CVG 13:44 MYR 15:27 15% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 5h 13m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 5h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 20m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 13:29 → ATL 15:04DL 3149 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 5h 38m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → CVG 11:24 → CLT 13:03AA 430 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 15:51 → MYR 17:01AA 2943 5h 37m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → CVG 07:53 → PHL 09:43AA 5578 · flown by PSA 1h 10m Philadelphia PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 5h 09m 89% 73%
AmericanDetails → CVG 13:15 → PHL 15:04AA 5514 · flown by PSA 1h 15m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 5h 12m 86% 67%
UnitedDetails → CVG 12:00 → EWR 14:04UA 4192 · flown by GoJet 1h 51m Newark EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic 6h 03m 86% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON