Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1379 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1379 CVG 05:30 → ORD 06:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5595 CVG 18:12 → ORD 18:44 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1379 United	CVG 05:30	ORD 06:02	6%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 4094 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:00	ORD 06:32	10%	4%	1.9%	82%
YX 3690 Republic	CVG 09:01	ORD 09:36	12%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 1738 United	CVG 10:50	ORD 11:23	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2752 United Flight history →	CVG 07:00	ORD 07:34	15%	3%	1.4%	91%
AA 2755 American	CVG 07:52	ORD 08:26	17%	5%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3935 Envoy	CVG 10:35	ORD 11:00	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
YX 4460 Republic	CVG 14:17	ORD 14:52	20%	7%	1.5%	no record
OO 5540 SkyWest	CVG 11:56	ORD 12:28	20%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 3426 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 12:02	ORD 12:27	22%	7%	1.4%	67%
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 19:24	ORD 19:59	22%	7%	1.8%	80%
OO 4735 SkyWest	CVG 14:09	ORD 14:39	28%	11%	2.1%	no record
OO 4749 SkyWest	CVG 16:14	ORD 16:46	30%	11%	1.7%	no record
OO 5595 SkyWest	CVG 18:12	ORD 18:44	31%	12%	2.1%	no record
UA 4177 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 19:54	ORD 20:34	22%	0%	12.9%	78%
UA 4171 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:52	23%	14%	5.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON