Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3091 American	CVG 17:52	PHX 19:00	20%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 34m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 27m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	8h 00m	99%	87%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32AA 3157	2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905	8h 06m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	8h 09m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	7h 54m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	9h 03m	100%	84%
United Details →	CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11UA 2442	1h 29m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 59m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 18:29 → DTW 19:50DL 5071 · flown by Endeavor	54m Detroit	DTW 20:44 → PHX 21:48DL 2076	6h 19m	70%	56%
American Details →	CVG 15:05 → DFW 16:35AA 3305	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:26 → PHX 18:14AA 2047	6h 09m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON