Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5400 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 13:31	RDU 15:02	17%	7%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 08:43 → RDU 10:10DL 1699	4h 36m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 33m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	6h 15m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164	5h 38m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026	6h 15m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521	7h 42m	99%	89%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616	7h 01m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:03 → DTW 12:16DL 5209 · flown by Endeavor	3h 46m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	6h 44m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON