Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 966 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 966 Delta Flight history →	CVG 06:40	SEA 08:34	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
AS 451 Alaska	CVG 18:37	SEA 20:20	21%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 50m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 39m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 41m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	9h 00m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 44m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:16 → LAS 08:16DL 2915	2h 53m Las Vegas	LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922	9h 44m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 37m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:45 → JFK 08:50DL 5044 · flown by Endeavor	2h 40m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	11h 05m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON