Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


F9 1668 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 08:54	TPA 11:15	13%	5%	0.7%	88%
DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:20	TPA 17:29	16%	7%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227	4h 33m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	4h 20m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:00 → MSP 11:56DL 954	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264	6h 32m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:15 → ATL 09:45DL 3076	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	5h 58m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	5h 30m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	6h 31m	98%	83%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 45m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	8h 12m	100%	81%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 09:05 → TPA 12:56AA 2920	6h 56m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON