Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


G4 412 Allegiant	CVG 07:29	VPS 08:22	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
G4 378 Allegiant	CVG 18:44	VPS 19:37	15%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:44 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	6h 26m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	4h 55m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CVG 13:29 → ATL 15:04DL 3149	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:01 → VPS 18:17DL 2803	5h 48m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:55 → ATL 18:41DL 3169	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	4h 54m	97%	88%
American Details →	CVG 11:24 → CLT 13:03AA 430	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 16:46 → VPS 17:25AA 5201 · flown by PSA	7h 01m	100%	82%
American Details →	CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32AA 3157	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460	6h 28m	98%	81%
American Details →	CVG 15:05 → DFW 16:35AA 3305	2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:06 → VPS 21:11AA 1201	7h 06m	97%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON