Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 336 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 336 DAL 06:06 → ATL 09:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2800 DAL 16:58 → ATL 20:22 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 336 Southwest	DAL 06:06	ATL 09:18	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 516 Delta Flight history →	DAL 06:05	ATL 09:17	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	DAL 10:07	ATL 13:16	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 199 Southwest	DAL 10:56	ATL 14:09	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1115 Delta Flight history →	DAL 12:19	ATL 15:31	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	DAL 18:39	ATL 22:00	16%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	DAL 15:59	ATL 19:14	16%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 2800 Southwest	DAL 16:58	ATL 20:22	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON