Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 429 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 429 DAL 06:01 → AUS 07:11 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 187 DAL 19:36 → AUS 20:47 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 429 Southwest	DAL 06:01	AUS 07:11	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1318 Southwest	DAL 07:31	AUS 08:41	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 987 Southwest	DAL 10:52	AUS 12:02	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 354 Southwest	DAL 13:22	AUS 14:33	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1320 Southwest	DAL 15:51	AUS 17:01	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 187 Southwest	DAL 19:36	AUS 20:47	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON