Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4 at 08:41 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 08:41	BHM 10:32	5%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 997 Southwest	DAL 15:56	BHM 17:47	21%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 05m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	6h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 19:02 → BHM 19:04DL 3044	6h 45m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	DAL 09:59 → HOU 11:19WN 15	3h 40m Houston	HOU 14:59 → BHM 16:53WN 1948	6h 54m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	46m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	3h 59m	78%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON